Cent Eur J Public Health 2014, 22(1):17-23 | DOI: 10.21101/cejph.a3877

Projected Incidence of Overweight and Obesity and Related Disease Incidence Across Poland

Laura Webber1, Ewa Halicka2, Tim Marsh1, Ketevan Rtveladze1, Klim McPherson3, Martin Brown1
1 UK Health Forum, London, United Kingdom
2 Faculty of Human Nutrition and Consumer Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Warsaw, Poland
3 New College, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

The first objective is to project obesity trends to 2030 based on the current data from Poland. The second objective is to test the effect of a 1% or 5% decrease in population BMI upon future incidence and prevalence of related non-communicable diseases. A two-stage modelling design projecting overweight and obesity trends and related diseases in a microsimulation model was developed. Epidemiological data for entry into a microsimulation model were gathered from Poland. This study used population level data from Poland creating a virtual population within a microsimulation model. Obesity and overweight in Poland was found to increase to very high levels in men while trends remained unchanged in women. In a country that currently has about 38 million inhabitants, it is anticipated that by 2030, there might be more than 9 million new cancer cases; 10 million CHD and stroke cases, and 7 million new cases of type 2 diabetes. These findings have policy implications highlighting the need for action to curb trends and to reduce increases in the rates of diet-related non-communicable disease.

Keywords: trend, obesity, non-communicable disease, coronary heart disease, modelling

Received: February 15, 2013; Revised: January 20, 2014; Accepted: January 20, 2014; Published: March 1, 2014  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Webber L, Halicka E, Marsh T, Rtveladze K, McPherson K, Brown M. Projected Incidence of Overweight and Obesity and Related Disease Incidence Across Poland. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2014;22(1):17-23. doi: 10.21101/cejph.a3877. PubMed PMID: 24844100.
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Berghöfer A, Pischon T, Reinhold T, Apovian CM, Sharma AM, Willich SN. Obesity prevalence from a European perspective: a systematic review. BMC Public Health. 2008 Jun 5;8:200. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    2. Tekkel M, Veideman T, Rahu M. Changes over fourteen years in adult obesity in Estonia: socioeconomic status and use of outpatient health services. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2010 Dec;18(4):186-91. Go to original source...
    3. Hujová Z,Alberty R,Ahlers I,Ahlersová E, Paulíková E, Desatníková J, et al. Cardiovascular risk predictors in Central Slovakian Roma children and adolescents: regional differences. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2010 Sep;18(3):139-44. Go to original source...
    4. Gikas A, Sotiropoulos A, Panagiotakos D, Pappas S. Prevalence of self-reported myocardial infarction in a Greek sample: findings from a population-based study in an urban area (medical express 2002). Cent Eur J Public Health. 2004 Dec;12(4):207-10. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    5. Vangelova K, Deyanov C. Dyslipoproteinemias in industrial workers: relationship with hypertension and overweight. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2000 May;8(2):77-9.
    6. Morava E, Végh É, Bóna I, Kiss I, Oroszi B, Józan P. Health risk factors and mortality in Pécs City, Hungary in the 1990s. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2000 May;8(2):109-13.
    7. Indulski JA, LutzW. Ischaemic heart disease as an effect of obesity-related metabolic disturbances. Cent Eur J Public Health. 1999 Aug;7(3):122-9.
    8. Milewicz A, Jedrzejuk D, Lwow F, Białynicka AS, Lopatynski J, Mardarowicz G, et al. Prevalence of obesity in Poland. Obes Rev. 2005 May;6(2):113-4. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    9. Kozieł S, Welon Z, Bielicki T, Szklarska A, Ulijaszek S. The effect of the economic transition on the body mass index of conscripts in Poland. Econ Hum Biol. 2004 Mar;2(1):97-106. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    10. Szponar L, Sekuła W, Rychlik E, Ołtarzewski M, Figurska K. Household food consumption and anthropometric survey. Prace IŻŻ. 2003;101:230443. (In Polish.)
    11. Biela U, Pająk A, Kaczmarczyk-Chałas K, Głuszek J, Tendera M, Waśkiewicz A, et al. Incidence of overweight and obesity in women and men between the ages of 20-74. Results of the WOBASZ program. Kardiol Pol. 2005;63(6 Suppl 4):S632-5. (In Polish.) Go to PubMed...
    12. Central Statistical Office. Health status of the Polish population in 2009 [Internet]. Warsaw: Central Statistical Office; 2011 [cited 2012 Jan 4]. Available from: http://www.stat.gov.pl/cps/rde/xbcr/gus/ZO_stan_zdrowia_2009.pdf. (In Polish.)
    13. Polakowska M, Piotrowski W. Incidence of diabetes in the Polish population: results of the Multicenter Polish Population Health Status Study - WOBASZ. Pol Arch Med Wewn. 2011 May;121(5):156-63. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    14. Zatonski WA, Willett W. Changes in dietary fat and declining coronary heart disease in Poland: population based study. BMJ. 2005;331(7510):187-8. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    15. Zatoński W, Mańczuk M., Sulkowska U, editors; the HEM project team. Closing the health gap in European Union [Internet]. Warsaw: Maria Skłodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology; 2008 [cited 2014 Mar 4].Available from: http://www.hem.waw.pl/index.php?idm=87,139&cmd=1.
    16. World Health Organization. The WHO Global Infobase [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; c2010 [updated 2011 Jan 20; cited 2011 Jun 4]. Available from: https://apps.who.int/infobase/.
    17. McPherson K, Marsh T, Brown M. Tackling obesities: future choices - modelling future trends in obesity and the impact on health [Internet]. Department of Innovation Universities and Skills; 2007 [cited 2011 Oct 7]. Available from: http://veilleagri.hautetfort.com/media/02/00/2025691480.pdf. Go to original source...
    18. WangYC, McPherson K, Marsh T, Gortmaker SL, Brown M. Health and economic burden of the projected obesity trends in the USAand the UK. Lancet. 2011 Aug 27;378(9793):815-25. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    19. Oblacińska A, Jodkowska M, Palczewska I, Tabak I. Value and usefulness of modified screening test for detection of overweight and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents. Med Wieku Rozwoj. 2007 Jul-Sep;11(3 Pt 1):275-80. (In Polish.) Go to PubMed...
    20. Woynarowska B, Małkowska-Szkutnik A, Mazur J, Kowalewska A, Komosińska K. School meals and policy on promoting healthy eating in schools in Poland. Med Wieku Rozwoj. 2011 Jul-Sep;15(3):232-9. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    21. Halicka E. Implementation of CAP programs aimed at increasing the consumption of fruit, vegetable and milk products in Polish schools. Probl World Agric. 2011;11(3):36-43.
    22. Szponar L, Ciok J, DolnaA, Oltarzewski M. Policy options for responding to the growing challenge from obesity (PorGrow) in Poland. Obes Rev. 2007 May;8 Suppl 2:91-8. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    23. Jarosz M, editor. POL HEALTH - The National Programme for the Prevention of Overweight and Obesity and Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases through the Improvement of Nutrition and Physical Activity 2007-2016. Warsaw: National Food and Nutrition Institute; 2006.
    24. Visscher TLS, Viet AL, Kroesbergen HT, Seidell JC. Underreporting of BMI in adults and its effect on obesity prevalence estimations in the period 1998 to 2001. Obesity (Silver Spring). 2006 Nov;14(11):2054-63. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    25. Macdiarmid J, Blundell J. Assessing dietary intake: Who, what and why of under-reporting. Nutr Res Rev. 1998 Dec;11(2):231-53. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    26. Bac A, Woźniacka R, Matusik S, Golec J, Golec E. Prevalence of overweight and obesity in children aged 6-13 years-alarming increase in obesity in Cracow, Poland. Eur J Pediatr. 2012 Feb;171(2):245-51. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    27. Kosti RI, Panagiotakos DB. The epidemic of obesity in children and adolescents in the world. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2006 Dec;14(4):151-9. Go to original source...
    28. Milewicz A, Jedrzejuk D, Lwow F, Białynicka AS, Lopatynski J, Mardarowicz G, et al. Prevalence of obesity in Poland. Obes Rev. 2005 May;6(2):113-4. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    29. Vignerová J, Lhotská L, Bláha P. Proposed standard definition for child overweight and obesity. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2001Aug;9(3):145-6.
    30. Kopczyński J, Wojtyniak B, Goryński P, Lewandowski Z. The future of chronic diseases. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2001 Feb;9(1):3-13.

    Return to the content