Cent Eur J Public Health 2016, 24(1):39-44

Estimation of Problem Drug Users in Prague in 2011 from Low-threshold Data: Modified Capture-Recapture Method, Adjusted for Clients Avoiding Any Identification (Non-Coded Clients)

Bruno Sopko1,2, Kateřina Škařupová3, Vlastimil Nečas1,5, Viktor Mravčík1,4,5
1 National Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction, Prague, Czech Republic
2 Department of Medical Chemistry and Clinical Biochemistry, 2nd Faculty of Medicine, Charles University and Motol University Hospital, Prague, Czech Republic
3 Institute for Research on Children, Youth and the Family, Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic
4 Department of Addictology, 1st Faculty of Medicine, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic
5 National Institute of Mental Health, Prague, Czech Republic

Aim: Local prevalence estimates of problem drug use (PDU) are crucial in the process of assessment of drug situation and trends and for the planning of evidence-based policy responses. The aims of our study are twofold: to estimate the number of problem drug users (PDUs) in the Czech capital city in 2011, and to examine the usability of the capture-recapture method (CRM) modified for data from low-threshold programmes (LTPs) for drug users.

Method: Six independent LTPs provided data for analysis (SANANIM, Drop-in and Progressive, each of these providing one drop-in centre and one outreach programme). After adjustment of the standard CRM formula for cases without an individual identifier, the overlaps between programmes were calculated and the size of hidden population was estimated.

Results: In total, it was estimated that there were 10,754 PDUs in Prague in 2011. The current estimate is in line with estimates obtained previously using another indirect standard approach - the multiplier method.

Conclusion: The modified version of CRM thus proved a reliable method for local PDU estimates.

Keywords: drug use, low-threshold programmes, population, capture-recapture, estimate

Received: September 9, 2014; Revised: December 21, 2015; Accepted: December 21, 2015; Published: March 1, 2016  Show citation

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Sopko B, Škařupová K, Nečas V, Mravčík V. Estimation of Problem Drug Users in Prague in 2011 from Low-threshold Data: Modified Capture-Recapture Method, Adjusted for Clients Avoiding Any Identification (Non-Coded Clients). Cent Eur J Public Health. 2016;24(1):39-44. PubMed PMID: 27070968.
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