Cent Eur J Public Health 2019, 27(2):141-144 | DOI: 10.21101/cejph.a4787

Influence of birth cohort, age and period on suicide mortality rate in Turkey, 1983-2013

Nurhan Doğan¹, Dilek Toprak², İsmet Doğan¹

¹ Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Afyonkarahisar Health Sciences University, Afyonkarahisar, Turkey

² Department of Family Medicine, Tekirdağ Namik Kemal University, Tekirdağ, Turkey

Objective: This study is designed to evaluate the potential effects of age, period and cohort (APC) on trends in suicide between 1983 and 2013 in Turkey.

Methods: Mortality data were obtained from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The data were grouped into seven age groups, four periods and ten birth cohorts. A nonlinear regression model was estimated for both sexes. The effects of age, period and cohort were parameterized using natural spline smoothing functions.

Results: There were 61,795 deaths recorded as suicides during the investigated time period, where 64.5% occurred in males (n = 39,862) and 35.5% in females (n = 21,933). There is an upward trend in mortality by age until the end of the study period for males and females. Age effect is decreased until the forties, kept decreasing during the middle ages, and sharply increased after the sixties. The death rates for females declined from 1999 until the end of the study period. For males, the death rates increased until the end of the study period.

Conclusion: If the current trends continue, it can be expected that these effects will continue to reduce female mortality and increase male mortality. Future studies on suicide, strongly focused on specific factors attributed to period effects, are needed in Turkey.

Keywords: age-period-cohort effect, suicide, mortality

Received: March 31, 2016; Revised: March 6, 2019; Accepted: March 6, 2019; Published: June 26, 2019  Show citation